More than 60 countries representing at least 40% of the global population and GDP will hold elections in 2024, bringing with them increased instability and uncertainty, according to a report Wednesday from Marsh LLC.
The specter of election interference amidst the rise of artificial intelligence makes these processes even more precarious, the report said.
“The link between elections and civil unrest is well understood; given the number of elections in 2024, there is a correspondingly elevated risk for electoral violence. Compounding this risk is a new and poorly understood factor: the potential for artificial intelligence to amplify political misinformation and disinformation,” the report said.
Economic issues such as rising sovereign debt and a growing global shift from fossil fuels also have the potential to cause disruption, the report said.
“Developed countries, including the U.S., Italy and Japan, have seen their debts balloon since the COVID-19 pandemic,” the report said. U.S. debt now makes up more than one-third of the world’s total and Japan has the second-highest debt/GDP ratio globally, above 250%, according to the report.
Meanwhile, developing nations will also struggle, with Egypt in 2024 likely to spend the equivalent of 40% of government revenues on interest payments alone, the report said.
The shift to more sustainable energy sources may also cause conflict, the report said.
“In advanced economies, policies designed to disincentivize emissions-heavy industries or develop domestic green economies may increasingly come into force, occasionally to the detriment of lower-income countries and businesses that trade between them,” the report said, while also noting that “emerging economies are home to many of the mineral resources necessary for low-carbon technologies.”
