Wildfire risks extend eastward as temperatures rise

Wildfire risks are spreading beyond western states and specific seasons, amplifying risks for property owners in densely populated areas, experts say.

Rising temperatures due to climate change and variables such as low humidity, dry vegetation, and local winds, are shifting attention to wildfire risk in urban environments on the edge of major metropolitan areas in states such as New York.

Wildfire activity has become a “year-round concern” and is starting to extend into states that were previously not considered wildfire-prone, such as Michigan and Pennsylvania, said Bill Gatewood, corporate senior vice president and national personal insurance practice leader at Burns & Wilcox Ltd. in Farmington Hills, Michigan.

In December, Burns & Wilcox expanded its partnership with Wildfire Defense Systems Inc., a Bozeman, Montana-based wildfire loss prevention and mitigation company, to properties in New Mexico and Texas.

“When you look at the shifting population in the U.S., people are migrating toward more cat-exposed states, raising the number of homes exposed to hurricane and wildfire perils,” Mr. Gatewood said.

Multiple wildfires in recent years disrupted California wineries and cannabis operations, with smoke causing substantial crop damage, he said.

“It’s an insurance marketplace issue, not just a homeowners issue,” Mr. Gatewood said.

Catastrophe data shows that with increasing temperatures due to climate change, the severity and frequency of fires is growing across the U.S., said Dustin Grogan, Boston-based senior atmospheric scientist at Karen Clark & Co.

“Wildfires are more frequent in the western U.S., but eastern states are no stranger to wildfire activity,” Mr. Grogan said.

The 2016 Chimney Tops fire in Tennessee burned 2,400 structures and resulted in close to $1 billion in losses. “If that event were to happen today, KCC estimates that losses would be nearly $1.5 billion,” he said.

“Wildfire risk is not just a western U.S. states risk. We’re starting to see that,” said Firas Saleh, Hoboken, New Jersey-based director of product management at Moody’s RMS.

In 2024, the number of wildfires affecting northeast states significantly exceeded previous years, and the wildfire season in the region shifted from its typical spring timeframe – March to May – to a highly unusual late summer and fall period, Mr. Saleh wrote in a Dec. 5 briefing published on Moody’s website.

Drought conditions in many states have exacerbated conditions. As of Jan. 1, more than half of New Jersey remained in severe to exceptional drought status, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The New Jersey Forest Fire Service responded to over 1,400 wildfires last year, affecting more than 11,000 acres.

Dry conditions turn vegetation into fuel for fires, Mr. Saleh said. “In the western states, there’s huge attention to vegetation management and mechanical thinning of specific areas close to dense urban environments. We’re not seeing that in the eastern states yet,” he said.

Steven Hawks, Sacramento, California-based senior director for wildfire at the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety, said guidance for protecting properties from wildfires is the same regardless of location.

“It’s all about protecting the exterior of the structure with more fire-resilient materials and reducing exposure to things that surround it like vegetation and other urban fuels, like sheds and fences,” he said.

Due to the close proximity of buildings, high-density housing communities are particularly vulnerable to fire spread. The IBHS is researching structure-to-structure fire spread, the role of connective fuels, and which materials give the best chance of survival, Mr. Hawks said.

Similarly, commercial buildings constructed with noncombustible materials that create good defensible space will be better protected. If a business stores pallets or boxes outside the back of a store, they should be moved at least 10 feet away from the building, Mr. Hawks said.

Property maintenance is critical to reduce losses, said Oscar Seikaly, CEO of NSI Insurance Group, a Miami Lakes, Florida-based agency. “It’s a combined effort, but insurers have been proactive in advising their clients how to maintain their properties if there’s a risk of wildfire.”

A home with outdoor sculptures escaped fire damage in a recent California wildfire, but some $15 million was paid to restore the smoke and soot-damaged sculptures, he said.