Reinsurance rates to rise in 2024, soften in 2025: Fitch analyst

(Reuters) — Reinsurance rates are likely to continue to rise in 2024, though at a slower pace than in 2023, and prices will start to fall in 2025, a Fitch Ratings analyst said Thursday.

Reinsurers have pushed up rates in recent years in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, war, inflation and climate change-fueled natural catastrophes, boosting their profitability.

“Our current expectation is the hard market environment will remain for 2024. We expect very incremental price increases; it will be lower than the ones we have seen,” Robert Mazzuoli, a senior director at Fitch, told Reuters. “Beyond that, we would expect a softening to start in 2025.”

Property catastrophe reinsurance rates are likely to rise in the “low double-digit” percentage range next year, while casualty reinsurance should stay flat due to increased competition in the market, Mr. Mazzuoli said.

The reinsurance industry holds its annual conference in Monte Carlo next week, when insurers and reinsurers start to hammer out deals for next year.

Fitch on Thursday raised its global reinsurance sector outlook to “improving” from “neutral” on rising prices, following an upgrade by S&P Global earlier this week.