The report reveals that a mild US recession could occur, but this is expected to impact areas such as the Eurozone more heavily.
,However, the report does argue that if The Fed does not pause rate hikes until it sees the contraction, a deeper recession could be seen in the US. Additionally for the US, CGWI predicts US inflation will continue to ease and end 2023 at around 3.5%, and the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rated by the second half of the year.
,CGWI argues that Asia could avoid recession in 2023. They expect to see emerging market Asian real GDP growth reach 5% in 2023, after having dipped to 4% in 2022. China is believed grow, as it begins to ease its pandemic restrictions, with the report predicting a rebound of between 3.5% to 4.5%.
,Globally, CGWI is expecting to see a 10% drop in global earnings per share, but anticipates this to grow again in 2024. The report forecasts investors will focus on 2024 recovery during 2023.
,CGWI sees these areas of potential opportunity:
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