US hurricane losses could soar 50% in warming climate, MS Amlin study finds

Insured losses from US hurricanes could increase by nearly 50% if global temperatures rise by 2°C, MS Amlin, the Lloyd’s re/insurer, warns in its recently launched peer-reviewed study published in the Journal of Catastrophe Risk and Resilience.

According to the study, climate change is reshaping hurricane behaviour—altering where storms strike, how often they occur, and how destructive they become.

Notably, regions along the northeastern US coastline, which have historically seen less frequent hurricane damage, are now expected to face some of the most pronounced increases in risk.

Cities such as New York and Boston are projected to experience some of the steepest relative growth in insured losses.

MS Amlin cautions that this evolving risk landscape is intensifying the gap between actual exposure and how risk is currently priced in the insurance market. That disconnect, the company notes, could leave many communities financially vulnerable as more powerful storms become the norm.

The study highlights that New York may see insured hurricane losses rise by 64%, while Rhode Island and Massachusetts could face average annual loss increases of over 70%. Florida, already a hotspot for hurricane activity, is expected to experience the largest absolute rise in insured losses, with projections pointing to a 44% increase.

The research also indicates that hurricanes with wind speeds exceeding 130 miles per hour—Category 4 and 5 storms—are likely to become more frequent and retain their strength farther north, driven by rising ocean temperatures. In major hurricane years, states like North and South Carolina could see insured losses jump by as much as 60%, a rate triple that of projected increases in Texas.

If a hurricane season similar to that of 2022, which caused $62 billion in insured damages, were to occur under this warming scenario, losses could surpass $90 billion.

The publication of the study follows a recent global panel appearance by MS Amlin CEO Andrew Carrier, who addressed the growing imbalance between climate-driven risk and current insurance pricing models. Carrier underscored the urgency for the industry to adapt to emerging threats posed by a warming climate.

“The evidence is mounting – risk appears to be rising faster than recognition or response. While this study points to a need for stronger building codes along the US Northeast and mid-Atlantic coast, aligned with hurricane-prone regions like Florida and Louisiana, at the same time, there seems to be a widening gap between risk and readiness.

“Asymmetry in the market is becoming more pronounced. Climate-related losses are rising, yet pricing and coverage terms are failing to keep pace. Insurers can act as climate shock absorbers for society—but only if risks are priced and structured in line with today’s reality,” said Carrier.

Dr Sam Phibbs, co-author of the study and MS Amlin’s Head of Catastrophe Research, added: “Our research shows that major storms could increasingly impact cities that have historically seen few hurricanes. Warmer oceans will allow hurricanes to maintain their intensity further north and will push significant new risk into areas less prepared to absorb it.”

Phibbs cautioned that the projected 50% increase in insured hurricane losses likely under represents the true scale of the threat. Once additional factors such as sea level rise, urban expansion, and heavier rainfall are taken into account, the financial toll could be significantly higher.

The study, titled “The Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Wind Losses in the US,” was conducted by MS Amlin’s catastrophe research team in collaboration with external experts. It has been peer-reviewed and published in the Journal of Catastrophe Risk and Resilience.

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