World Economic Forum: 64% of experts predict fragmented global order amid rising threats

The World Economic Forum (WEF), a non-governmental organisation committed to improving global economic and social conditions, has released the 20th edition of its Global Risks Report, which highlights an increasingly fragmented global landscape where escalating geopolitical, environmental, societal, and technological challenges threaten both stability and progress.

While economic risks are less prominent in this year’s survey, they remain a concern, intertwined with societal and geopolitical tensions.

State-based armed conflict is identified as the most urgent global risk for 2025, with nearly a quarter of respondents ranking it as the top concern for the year ahead.

Misinformation and disinformation continue to be major short-term risks for the second consecutive year, emphasising their ongoing threat to societal cohesion and governance by eroding trust and deepening divisions both within and between nations. Other key short-term risks include extreme weather events, societal polarisation, and cyber-espionage and warfare.

Environmental risks dominate the long-term outlook, with extreme weather events, biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse, significant changes to Earth systems, and natural resource shortages leading the 10-year risk rankings. Pollution, which also ranks as a leading short-term risk, is the fifth environmental risk in the top 10.

Its high ranking in both the short and long terms reflects growing awareness of its severe impacts on health and ecosystems across air, water, and land. Extreme weather events were noted as prominent risks across immediate, short-term, and long-term timelines.

The long-term risk landscape is further complicated by technological threats, particularly concerning misinformation, disinformation, and the potentially harmful outcomes of artificial intelligence.

“Rising geopolitical tensions, a fracturing of global trust and the climate crisis are straining the global system like never before,” added Mirek Dušek, Managing Director, World Economic Forum. “In a world marked by deepening divides and cascading risks, global leaders have a choice: to foster collaboration and resilience, or face compounding instability. The stakes have never been higher.”

The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report, based on insights from over 900 global risks experts, policy-makers, and industry leaders surveyed in September and October 2024, paints a sobering picture for the decade ahead. Respondents express significantly lower optimism for the longer-term outlook, with nearly two-thirds predicting a turbulent global landscape by 2035, driven mainly by intensifying environmental, technological, and societal challenges.

More than half of the respondents anticipate instability within the next two years, underscoring the growing fragmentation of international cooperation.

Long-term projections point to even greater difficulties, with mechanisms for collaboration expected to come under increasing pressure. Societal risks, such as inequality and polarisation, are prominently ranked in both the short- and long-term risk assessments.

Rising concerns over illicit economic activities, escalating debt burdens, and the concentration of strategic resources further emphasise vulnerabilities that could destabilise the global economy in the coming years. These factors threaten to fuel domestic instability and erode trust in governance, complicating efforts to address global challenges.

All 33 risks identified in the report show an increase in severity over the longer term, reflecting respondents’ fears about the growing frequency and intensity of these risks as the next decade unfolds.

“From conflicts to climate change, we are facing interconnected crises that demand coordinated, collective action,” commented Mark Elsner, Head of the Global Risks Initiative, World Economic Forum. “Renewed efforts to rebuild trust and foster cooperation are urgently needed. The consequences of inaction could be felt for generations to come.”

As divisions widen and fragmentation reshapes both geopolitical and economic landscapes, the need for effective global cooperation has never been more pressing. Yet, with 64% of experts predicting a fragmented global order characterised by competition among middle and major powers, multilateralism is under considerable strain.

Despite these challenges, turning inward is not a feasible solution. The coming decade presents a crucial opportunity for leaders to tackle complex, interconnected risks and address the limitations of current governance structures. To avoid a downward spiral of instability and instead foster a future of trust, resilience, and inclusivity, nations must prioritise dialogue, strengthen international partnerships, and create conditions conducive to renewed collaboration.

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