Long-term COVID effects may lead to elevated mortality in US & UK: Swiss Re

If the ongoing impact of COVID-19 is not curtailed, excess mortality rates in the general population may remain up to 3% higher than pre-pandemic levels in the US and 2.5% in the UK by 2033, as per a report from the Swiss Re Institute.

According to the report, typically, all-cause excess mortality should be around zero, as the major causes of death remain relatively stable over the long-term baseline assumption.

“Fluctuations in excess mortality tend to be short-term, reflecting developments such as a large-scale medical breakthrough or the negative impact of a large epidemic. However, as society absorbs these events, excess mortality should revert to the baseline,” Swiss Re’s report explained.

With COVID-19 though, this has reportedly not been the case, with all-cause excess mortality still above the pre-pandemic baseline.

“In 2021, excess mortality spiked to 23% above the 2019 baseline in the US, and 11% in the UK. In 2023, it remained significantly elevated in the range of 3–7% for the US, and 5–8% for the UK,” the report added.

If the underlying drivers of current excess mortality continue, Swiss Re Institute’s analysis estimates that excess mortality may remain as high as 3% for the US and 2.5% for the UK by 2033.

“The current levels of excess mortality are of concern. However, there are a range of tools available for insurers and reinsurers to manage this trend. Specific actions include adapting the underwriting philosophy, risk appetite, and mortality assumptions in pricing and reserving. Insurers can be proactive in targeting prevention programmes for policyholders, helping them in the joint effort to support longer, healthier lives,” Swiss Re Institute’s report read.

Paul Murray, CEO L&H Reinsurance at Swiss Re, commented, “COVID-19 is far from over. The US reported an average of 1500 COVID-19 deaths a week for 2023 – comparable to fentanyl or firearm deaths.

“If this continues, our analysis suggests a potential scenario of elevated excess mortality extending over the next decade. However, excess mortality can return to pre-pandemic levels much sooner.

“The first step is to get COVID under control, with measures such as vaccinations for the vulnerable. Over the longer term, medical advancements, a return to regular healthcare services, and the adoption of healthier lifestyle choices will be key.”

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