Broker pre-landfall loss forecasts ranged from 15bn to 40bn

In their pre-landfall loss forecasts for Hurricane Milton, Steve Bowen, Chief Science Officer at reinsurance broker Gallagher Re, said private insurance market losses ranging from $30 billion to $40 billion could be expected, while BMS Group’s Senior Meteorologist Andrew Siffert noted that a $15 billion or greater event is possible.

Both of these forecasts came in shortly before Milton’s category 3 landfall in Siesta Key, Sarasota County last night, and were based on the National Hurricane Center track as the hurricane approached Florida.

With the landfall being somewhat south of Tampa Bay, the worst-case loss scenarios involving significant storm surge into the Tampa metro area appear to have been avoided. Nonetheless, Milton is still a large storm, with widespread hurricane wind speeds and impacts across the entire Florida Peninsula.

In BMS’s pre-landfall loss forecast, Siffert said that fears of the top ten loss event seem to have passed following Milton’s shift in track away from Tampa Bay. However, he suggested that the event will still add to the already $16 billion loss of five landfalling events so far this season.

“How much it adds to the loss is still in question, but it would appear that a $15 billion event is not out of the question for the insurance industry, but the much higher loss scenarios of yesterday are likely off the table.”

Meanwhile, Gallagher Re’s Bowen observed that regardless of the scenario, the cost to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) is likely to be calculated as a mid-to-high single-digit billion impact.

“This would be on top of the expected significant loss into the billions from Helene. Overall, this would make 2024 one of the most expensive years ever recorded for the NFIP,” he added.

In related news, analysts at S&P recently noted that given that many primary P&C insurers are already near their 2024 catastrophe budgets due to H1 losses, Milton, along with other weather-related losses, could fully exhaust these budgets.

However, reinsurers may still have room in their catastrophe budgets to absorb the combined losses from Milton and other 2024 natural disasters.

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