US faces highest risk of unrest since 2020 protests, says Verisk

As the US presidential election approaches, the potential for political violence, including large-scale protests, is increasing due to the current volatile political landscape, according to data from Verisk’s global risk unit.

This election is one of the most volatile in recent history, marked by two assassination attempts on Republican nominee Donald Trump and the withdrawal of President Joe Biden.

Verisk Maplecroft’s Strikes, Riots, and Civil Commotion (SRCC) Predictive Model indicates that the election occurs during a period of heightened risk.

Conditions now resemble those leading up to the George Floyd protests, which resulted in about $3 billion in insured losses in 2020. As a result, the US now ranks as the fifth-highest risk country globally for civil unrest.

Adding to this risk, public opinion polls reveal rising political polarisation, surpassing levels seen in the last election. According to Pew Research, approximately three-quarters of Kamala Harris’s supporters and four-fifths of Trump’s supporters strongly disagree with the other side’s core values.

The charged political environment in the run-up to, during, and after the election raises concerns about a higher likelihood of significant unrest events.

Typically, elections around the world do not lead to violent civil unrest. Of the 38 significant elections held in the first eight months of the year, only four experienced widespread unrest, according to Verisk Maplecroft.

However, the current political landscape in the US could ignite violent protests and riots before and after the election. If violence occurs at polling stations or if the election outcome is contested, localised incidents could escalate into nationwide unrest.

The SRCC Predictive Model shows that many regions face elevated risks. Specifically, 755 counties fall into the very high or high-risk categories, based on the severity and frequency of protests, as well as the concentration of economic value and population in these areas.

The January 2021 Capitol riots underscore the risk of election-related tensions leading to civil unrest.

Torbjorn Soltvedt, Principal Analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, noted, “Those riots included substantial participation by agitator groups whose presence at demonstrations in the next months could raise the risk of violence.”

He added, “In parallel, threats against public officials continue to increase, mirroring a global trend of rising polarisation and growing mistrust in public authorities. Not only is the underlying SRCC risk higher than in January 2021, the potential for flashpoints to ignite civil unrest is also greater.”

The SRCC Predictive Model highlights that the drivers of this risk in the US are complex and varied; however, climate issues, development challenges, income inequality, and a higher likelihood of unlawful killings play an important role.

Conversely, the US economy’s stronger performance compared to many peers somewhat mitigates the overall SRCC risk. Inflation has decreased more rapidly than in Europe, and the US economy continues to grow faster than those in the G7 or the Eurozone. Nonetheless, public sentiment toward the economy remains as negative as it was at the beginning of the year, suggesting that socioeconomic factors could still lead to unrest.

Robert Munks, Head of Americas research at Verisk Maplecroft, emphasised, “Crucially, the risk of election-related unrest will rise substantially if the outcome of the election is tightly contested – particularly should Trump lose to Harris.”

He continued, “In such a scenario, SRCC risks would be likely to rise around ‘political’ targets – including institutional milestones in the presidential confirmation process.”

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