CoreLogic & Moody’s highlight billions in property exposure as Milton nears Florida

Separate data analysis from CoreLogic and Moody’s has revealed that 500,000 single-family and multifamily homes in Florida’s Tampa Bay and Sarasota areas, with a reconstruction cost value of $123 billion, are at risk of storm surge from Hurricane Milton, while over 235,000 commercial properties in the state, worth $1.1 trillion, have a more than 50% chance of exposure to damaging winds of at least 50 mph.

Jon Schneyer, director of catastrophe response at CoreLogic, commented, “Hurricane Milton forecasts currently indicate a direct landfall over Tampa Bay as a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph.

“Small changes in the exact landfall location will have monumental consequences on the financial impact of this storm. A direct landfall, or one just north of Tampa Bay, would be a worst-case scenario because the winds and storm surge flooding would be most intense.

“A more southern landfall would reduce the impact in Tampa Bay but devastate communities along the coast near Sarasota.”

CoreLogic’s figure of 500,000 homes with a reconstruction cost value of $123 billion is based on Hurricane Milton making landfall as a Category 3 hurricane.

Meanwhile, Moody’s figures estimate exposure of commercial real estate properties to wind hazard only, based on its RMS HWind data using the ExposureIQ™ app to identify the likelihood of locations experiencing 3-second peak gusts above different threshold wind speeds.

Moody’s noted that estimates of total property value and potential damage are limited to the properties covered in Moody’s commercial real estate database, which is a robust dataset of millions of properties but is not necessarily fully comprehensive in all cases.

Denise Rappmund, Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings, commented, “The back-to-back landfalls of Hurricanes Helene and Milton in Florida heighten the risk of significant insurance claims for both Citizens and the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund (FHCF), especially with Milton’s trajectory towards densely populated west-central areas.

“The expected extensive wind damage could strain FHCF’s reserves, despite current resources likely covering these imminent claims. These events also amplify the risk of flooding, adding to the financial and economic strain from cleanup and disruptions.”

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