Favourable conditions for US commercial insurance buyers amid economic uncertainty: Lockton

For US commercial insurance buyers, the current landscape is arguably the most favourable in the past five to six years, however, economic uncertainty abounds, with potential ripple effects on the insurance market, according to the latest Lockton Market Update.

Lockton reported that conditions remain strong for insurers, supported by continued underwriting discipline, rising investment income from higher bond yields, and the ongoing benefits of years of rate hardening and portfolio optimisation.

The environment is favourable for buyers, with rates continuing to fall across multiple lines as insurers compete for both existing and new business—particularly in property, financial lines, and specialty coverages. Third-party liability remains a notable exception, facing continued pricing and capacity pressures.

At the same time, Lockton underscored the depth and breadth of economic uncertainty and its potential impact on the insurance marketplace.

“There are more questions than answers about several important matters — trade, inflation, tax policy, debt, climate volatility, geopolitical risk, regulatory shifts, and the macroeconomic landscape,” said Lockton.

The report added, “For economists, policymakers, businesses, and consumers, uncertainty abounds regarding tariffs, geopolitics, taxes, sovereign debt, and immigration. For most, the biggest source of worry is tariffs: The general consensus is that tariffs will disrupt supply chains and raise the cost of goods for consumers and businesses, which will curtail spending and investments.”

In this environment, Lockton emphasised the importance of looking beyond immediate opportunities for premium savings and instead focusing on building resilience.

“2025 has been anything but predictable,” said Vince Gaffigan, Lockton’s U.S. Market Strategy and Engagement Group Leader. “From social inflation and tariffs to regulatory shifts, geopolitical tensions, and a highly volatile stock market, the challenges are complex and interconnected. In times like these, the Lockton Market Update isn’t just helpful — it’s essential for businesses evaluating their insurance strategies.”

Greg Spore, Lockton’s U.S. Financial Services Market Leader, commented, “In today’s environment, it’s essential to look beyond short-term premium savings and instead focus on building resilience.

“That means gaining a deeper understanding of your risk profile, enhancing coverage where it matters most, and making strategic decisions about how and where to deploy capital.”

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