Guy Carpenter pegs insured loss from Central Europe floods at up to €2.1bn

Modern infrastructure, dams, and flood barriers significantly mitigated the impact of the 2024 flooding across Central and Eastern Europe, according to reinsurance broker Guy Carpenter, who has estimated an insured loss between €1.6 billion and €2.1 billion from the event.

A slow-moving storm caused days of intense rainfall and flooding across Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria, Hungary, Romania, and Germany from September 11th.

Although the event was severe, Guy Carpenter analysis states that in real terms, the damage is notably lower than the previous major flood events of 1997 and 2002, driven by improved flood risk management, and heightened public awareness across Central and Eastern Europe.

Unlike prior flood events across the region, modern infrastructure, dams, flood barriers, and advancements in weather forecasting all played a crucial role in mitigating the losses.

Guy Carpenter pegs the aggregate insurance market loss at up to €2.1 billion. By territory, the reinsurance broker estimates a market loss of €600 to €750 million in Czech Republic, €550 to €650 million in Austria, €350 to €550 million in Poland, and for Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania, a combined insured loss of between €100 million and €150 million.

Other insured loss estimates from this event have been released, including a range of €2 billion to €3 billion from Gallagher Re, while Aon warned that total insured property losses stemming from the event will most likely exceed €1.5 billion.

“Although the nominal value may exceed that of 1997 due to inflation, in real terms, it remains lower. Overall, the 2024 event does not reach the magnitude of the 1997, 2002 and 2010 events, either in terms of rainfall intensity or the resulting financial damage.

“Early assessments indicate a significantly reduced number of affected properties — approximately 20% of those impacted in 1997 — and overall financial damages are expected to be lower than the 2010 event,” says Guy Carpenter.

In 1997, the Oder and the Vistula rivers reached levels that had return periods in the 1000s of years, and resulting flooding was associated with an upper cut off low over Southeast Europe. Guy Carpenter notes that the cyclone track was similar to the September 2024 event.

The current floods also have similarities to the 2002 event, which caused devastating floods across Austria, the Czech Republic, and parts of Germany, which led to the Elbe and Danube catchments being overwhelmed.

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