Helene expected to make landfall as a major hurricane on Florida Big Bend

The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) is for Tropical Storm Helene to make landfall on the Big Bend region of the Florida panhandle as a major Category 3 or higher hurricane, but as ever, there’s potential for the track to change as the storm approaches land, which could significantly increase any losses.

Currently, the forecast for Helene is that it will become a hurricane later today and develop into a major hurricane with sustained winds of 110 mph or higher on Thursday, before intensifying further ahead of landfall, which is currently expected around the Mexico Beach & Cedar Key areas of the Florida coast.

Of course, for insurers and reinsurers it’s all about where a storm makes landfall, and with the current forecasts pointing to the Big Bend area, models point to re/insurance industry loss predictions in the low to mid-single digit billions of dollars, although any loss estimates remain very, very uncertain at this stage.

However, were Helene to deviate and make landfall closer to Tampa and further south along the Florida coastline, the higher population and greater values-at-risk would considerably lift the potential for insured losses. At the moment, though, this isn’t expected.

If, as currently predicted, Helene makes landfall around the Mexico Beach & Cedar Key areas as a major Cat 3 hurricane on Thursday, Enki Research has suggested total economic losses of between $10 billion and $16 billion, which would be in line with an insured loss in the mid-single digit billions of dollars. But again, this all remains very uncertain as tropical storm Helene continues its track towards the Florida coastline.

Further, Helene is expected to be a fairly large storm, so there’s some uncertainty surrounding potential impacts further down the coast, with impacts from Helene expected to be felt far from its centre.

Additionally, there’s divergence in models in terms of landfall location, with the further east expected to result in higher economic and insured losses.

In its latest update, at 4am CDT, the NHC states that Helene was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 86.2 West, moving toward the northwest near 9 mph.

“This motion should continue through this morning, followed by a general northward motion beginning later today and continuing through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Helene will pass near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on later today and Thursday, and reach the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday.

“Maximum sustained winds are now near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane later today. The storm is forecast to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a major hurricane on Thursday,” says the NHC in its most recent update.

Storm surge impacts are also expected in numerous regions along the Florida coast, with Tampa Bay potentially experiencing surge of up to 8ft if the peak surge occurs at high tide. In the same scenario, storm surge of 10-15ft could occur from Ochlockonee River to Chassahowitzka, and up to 10ft from Chassahowitzka to Anclote River.

Commenting on Helene and its unusual size, weather research expert Tomer Burg, said: “The reason for Helene being so abnormally large for a hurricane in the Gulf is tied to an anomalous synoptic setup, as a cutoff low unusually far south for this time of year, trapped beneath a block to its north, will induce extratropical transition for Helene quite far south.”

While widespread uncertainty remains, insurers and reinsurers will be closely watching the track of soon to be hurricane Helene, as any deviation in track as the potential to amplify any economic and insured losses.

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