Hurricane forecast ‘slightly above normal’: Colorado State

Researchers at Colorado State University on Thursday decreased their forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, calling for “slightly above-normal” activity.

The researchers in the department of atmospheric science at CSU in Fort Collins, Colorado, said in a report they expect 16 named storms to form this year, including the three named storms that have already formed.

CSU expects eight of the storms to reach hurricane status, and three to become major hurricanes of category 3, 4 or 5.

The probability of a major hurricane making U.S. landfall this season is 48%, slightly above the average of 43% from 1880 to 2020.

“The primary reason for the slight decrease in the outlook is both observed and predicted high levels of Caribbean shear. High levels of Caribbean shear in June/July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons,” the report said.

Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are slightly warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time, the report said.

Tropical Storm Chantal was the first named storm of 2025 to make landfall in the U.S. on July 6 near Litchfield Beach, South Carolina.

CSU’s forecasts issued in June and April called for 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes.