Hurricane Helene insured losses projected at $3B-6B
- November 1, 2025
- Posted by: Web workers
- Category: Finance
Hurricane Helene is being projected to cause some $3 billion to $6 billion in insured losses, according to a report Wednesday from Gallagher Re, the reinsurance business of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
Additional combined loss costs from federally funded insurance programs such as NFIP or the USDA’s crop insurance program could be as high as $1 billion depending on the height of coastal storm surge, the report said.
The reinsurance broker emphasized that a change in storm track could translate to a change in projected losses.
“Any shift in track to the east or west could make the difference in billions of dollars with final economic and/or insured loss costs,” Gallagher Re said.
Landfall in the Big Bend or Panhandle region of Florida as a major hurricane of Category 3, 4, or 5 strength has historically translated to insured losses in the low single-digit billions of dollars, according to the report.
If Helene unexpectedly shifts further east much closer to Tampa, then the cost to the private insurance market and federally run insurance programs would be expected to notably exceed $10 billion, but this scenario is currently considered “quite unlikely,” the report said.
In a separate note, Howden Re projected losses of $3 billion to $5 billion with higher figures associated with a hit elsewhere.
“In the best case, a Big Bend landfall could result in losses mirroring Hurricane Idalia’s $3-5 billion; but a significant swing in either direction — either toward the peninsula or panhandle may produce losses that exceed $10 to $15 billion, similar to Hurricanes Michael or Irma,” Anna Neely, managing director, head of catastrophe R&D at Howden Re, said in a statement.
CoreLogic Inc. separately said it estimates that nearly 25,000 residential properties with a combined reconstruction cost value of $5.6 billion are at risk to storm surge flooding from Hurricane Helene. This estimate assumes that Helene will make landfall as a Category 3 and keeps its current forecasted track.
