Insured losses in Q1 expected to be lighter-than-average: JP Morgan

JP Morgan has estimated that global insured losses will be less than $10 billion in Q1 of 2024, much below the average of $15 billion over the last 10 years.

The largest natural catastrophe during Q1 was the magnitude 7.5 earthquake that struck Japan on New Year’s Day.

Catastrophe risk modeller Moody’s RMS has estimated that the total insurance industry loss from this event will fall between $3 billion and $6 billion.

The range reportedly reflects property damage, contents, and business interruption across residential, commercial, and industrial lines, and also includes both private and mutual markets.

Meanwhile, the insured losses from the Baltimore Bridge collapse, which occurred on March 26th, could land between $2 billion and $4 billion, depending on how long the Port of Baltimore is blocked, according to analysts at Morningstar DBRS.

JP Morgan explained that this event is anticipated to be the largest marine claim in history and, thus, the largest insured loss for Q1.

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