Moody’s estimates Helene private insured losses at up to $14 billion

U.S. private market insured losses from Hurricane Helene are estimated between $8 billion and $14 billion, with a best estimate of $11 billion, according to a report Tuesday from Moody’s RMS Inc.

The estimate includes insured wind, storm surge and inland flood impacts. Moody’s RMS Event Response also estimates National Flood Insurance Program losses could exceed $2 billion, the report said.

The figures reflect wind losses in Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic, as well as storm surge losses in Florida. Estimated losses also reflect property damage and business interruption to commercial, industrial, residential and automobile lines of business.

The private market losses are expected to be driven by wind, with a higher contribution coming from Georgia than Florida. Storm surge in Florida and floods in North Carolina will also contribute notably, according to Moody’s RMS.

Hurricane Helene made landfall as a Category 4 major hurricane west-southwest of Perry, Florida, on Sept. 27 with maximum sustained winds of 140 miles per hour.

It was the sixth named storm of the 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season and the fourth hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. this season.

The worst impacts from this event are from inland flooding, with several towns devastated in North Carolina, Tennessee and surrounding states as a result of historical levels of precipitation, according to Firas Saleh, director-U.S. inland flood models, for Moody’s.

“Thousands of buildings were exposed to fast-moving waters over eight feet, and several to depths greater than 15 feet. We expect widespread damage and total constructive losses in these regions, with prolonged recovery after the catastrophic infrastructure damage,” he said in the report.

Multiple states were affected with different degrees of damage from wind, storm surge and excessive rainfall-induced flooding, according to Mohsen Rahnama, chief risk modeling officer at Moody’s. “Hurricane Helene is by far the most impactful event of the current 2024 hurricane season, though this may quickly change with Major Hurricane Milton due to impact Florida in the coming days,” he said.

On Monday CoreLogic Inc. said insured losses from Hurricane Helene could reach $17.5 billion.