Near-normal North Atlantic hurricane season ‘most likely’: Moody’s

Moody’s Investors Service Inc. Monday said its Moody’s RMS catastrophe modeling unit forecasts a near-normal North  Atlantic hurricane season as “most likely.”

The North Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

The catastrophe modeler attributed its forecast of a near-normal hurricane season to key factors such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and above-average North Atlantic sea surface temperatures.

The report noted both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Colorado State University, known widely for its hurricane expertise, have forecasted five to nine hurricanes for the season. NOAA sees one to four major hurricanes, while CSU forecasts two to five.

The report noted differences in the accuracy of various forecasts. For Colorado State University, the observed hurricane count fell within its forecast range 61% of the time from 1995 through 2022.  NOAA fared less well, with the observed hurricane count in its forecast range 50% of the time from 2001 through 2022.

The Moody’s RMS report also noted two forecasts for the Western North Pacific typhoon season, which runs throughout the calendar year although most of the activity typically occurs between May and November.

Tropical Storm Risk predicts that activity in the Western North Pacific Basin this year will be above average, with approximately 29 tropical storms, 19 of which are predicted to intensify into typhoons.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts predicts 17 to 24 tropical storms will develop in the Western North Pacific Basin between June and November, with 10 to 14 developing into typhoons.