Forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday said up to five major hurricanes may form in what is still expected to be an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season.
In its updated forecast, NOAA said there remains a 50% chance of above-normal activity, a 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 15% chance of a below-normal season. In May, NOAA forecast a 60% chance of an above-normal season.
NOAA now expects 13 to 18 named storms, with winds of 39 mph or greater, to form, of which five to nine could become hurricanes with winds of 79 mph or greater. Two to five of those could become major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or more.
So far, the 2025 season has seen four named tropical storms — Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter. Tropical Storm Chantal was the first named storm of 2025 to make landfall in the U.S. on July 6 near Litchfield Beach, South Carolina.
Atlantic basin tropical storm activity is expected to be higher due to several factors, including warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Seas, along with an active West African Monsoon, the forecast said.
Researchers at Colorado State University on Wednesday maintained their forecast for “slightly above-normal” activity for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season but cautioned there was more uncertainty in the outlook.
The researchers in the department of atmospheric science at CSU in Fort Collins, Colorado, said the probability of a major hurricane making U.S. landfall during the remainder of the season remains 48%, slightly above the average of 43% from 1880 to 2020.
