PERILS cuts industry loss estimate for Cyclone Alfred to AUD 1.92bn

Zurich-based catastrophe insurance data provider PERILS has disclosed its third industry loss estimate for Cyclone Alfred, dropping the figure significantly to AUD 1.922 billion.

Providing some background for the event, PERILS explained that Cyclone Alfred made landfall on 7 March as a Category 1 cyclone near the Gold Coast in Southeast Queensland, Australia.

The storm reportedly reached an offshore peak intensity of Category 4 but by landfall, diminished in wind strength, though still carrying substantial tropical-sourced moisture into the Southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales regions.

PERILS’ latest estimate of AUD 1.922 billion compares with its earlier assessments of , and .

The latest revision represents an AUD 328 million reduction from the most recent figure, a downward adjustment that PERILS makes only rarely in its reporting.

In line with the firm’s coverage definition for Australia, this third loss number covers the property and motor hull lines of business and is based on loss data collected from affected insurers.

“The loss information in this third report provides a breakdown of property and motor losses by four-digit post code resolution, with the data further divided by personal lines (70% of the total industry loss), commercial lines (26% of the total industry loss) and motor lines (4% of the total industry loss),” PERILS added.

The catastrophe insurance data provider said it will release a fourth update of the market loss from Cyclone Alfred on 12 March 2026, twelve months after the event’s end date.

Darryl Pidcock, Head of Asia Pacific & Cyber at PERILS, commented, “Since releasing our last loss report three months ago, we have observed a decrease in loss numbers and the number of claims provided by our insurance data providers, indicating cautious early reserving.

“Even though Alfred was a cyclone event, losses were primarily driven by intense and prolonged rainfall rather than by strong winds.

“Personal property lines are the main contributor to the losses, followed by commercial lines property, and to a much smaller degree motor losses, which only make up 4% of the total industry loss.”

“This report provides a wealth of new information enabling an improved understanding of vulnerabilities in southern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales, which are rarely impacted by tropical cyclones.

“Losses further south in New South Wales were primarily due to flooding as post-Alfred rainfall lingered for some days following landfall.”