Property reductions, casualty stability forecast for H2: USI

Property and casualty rates are forecast to diverge in the second half of 2025, according to a report Tuesday from USI Insurance Services LLC.

Property markets should continue to see reductions in many cases while casualty markets should show more stability and even firmness.

The Valhalla, New York-based broker says noncatastrophe-exposed property with a minimal loss history and favorable risk profile is expected to renew flat to down 10% in the second half after ranging from up 5% to down 5% in the first half.

Catastrophe-exposed property with a minimal loss history and favorable risk profile is forecast to renew flat to down 20%, the same as in the first half.

Catastrophe- or noncatastrophe-exposed property with an unfavorable loss history or unfavorable risk profile are expected to renew down 10% to up 10%, the same as the first half.

“Property renewals in the first half of 2025 saw increased competition, deployment of additional capacity on programs, widespread rate decreases, and improvements to terms and conditions,” USI said in its report. “In the second half of the year, opportunities will remain for insureds to expand coverage, purchase higher limits, reduce deductibles, improve terms, and reduce premium.”

Primary general liability and product liability are expected to renew flat to up 10%, the same as in the first half.

Umbrella and excess liability, middle market, are expected to renew flat to up 10%, the same as in the first half.

Umbrella and excess liability, risk management accounts, are expected to renew flat to up 20%, compared with flat to up 15% in the first half.

In executive and professional risk, public company directors and officers liability is expected to renew flat compared with down 5% to flat in the first half of 2025.

Private company and not-for-profit D&O liability is forecast to renew down 2.5% to up 2.5%, compared with down 7.5% to flat in the first half.

“Social inflationary pressures are not abating, nor is the practice of litigation financing to generate a revenue stream,” USI said.