Tariffs could trigger further jump in insolvencies: Allianz Trade

Global insolvencies are set to rise again in 2025, according to Allianz Trade.

The Allianz SE unit said its Global Insolvency Index forecasts a 6% increase this year, driven by Latin America where insolvencies are forecast to rise 10%, North America at 9% and Asia at 5%. This follows a surge of 10% in 2024.

Western Europe is also set to record another increase in insolvencies for the fourth consecutive year, at 3% higher in 2025.

However, Allianz Trade said “a full-fledged trade war” could raise global insolvencies above 7% in 2025 and 2026.

U.S. tariffs on imports exceeding 25% would increase Allianz Trade’s global insolvency forecasts by an additional 2.1 percentage points to 7.8% in 2025 and by 4.8 percentage points to 8.3% in 2026. This would mean an additional 6,800 insolvencies in the US and 9,100 in Western Europe.

The index ended 2024 at 12% above its 2016-2019 average, with increases across all regions.

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