U.S. tariffs will slow global growth: Report

U.S. tariff policy will slow global economic growth as it reduces trade and heightens uncertainty, according to a report Wednesday from Swiss Re Ltd.

Global inflation-adjusted GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.3% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026 from 2.8% in 2024, the report said.

The global insurance industry is expected to follow suit, as total premium growth is forecast to slow to 2% this year from 5.2% in 2024 and rebound marginally to 2.3% in 2026. Growth in the global insurance industry is slowing in both life and non-life sectors.

The U.S. market share of global premiums rose from 44.4% in 2023 to 44.8% in 2024, according to report data.

“While insurers’ profitability outlook is still benefiting from rising investment income, we expect tariffs to slow global GDP growth,” Jérôme Haegeli, Swiss Re’s group chief economist, said in a statement with the report. “U.S. tariff policy is another move towards more market fragmentation.”

U.S. GDP growth is forecast at 1.5% this year, down from 2.8% in 2024. “U.S. consumers will be hit hardest by the tariff policy and cut their spending as a consequence of higher prices. This in turn will weigh on U.S. growth which mostly depends on household consumption,” Haegeli said in the statement.