Verisk estimates Milton’s insured losses to range between $30bn – $50bn

According to the Extreme Event Solutions group at Verisk, insured industry losses to onshore property for Hurricane Milton will range between $30 billion and $50 billion.

The firm explained that this estimate includes losses due to wind, privately insured estimates of storm surge, and privately insured precipitation induced flood losses resulting from Milton’s landfall in Florida. The majority of the insured loss is attributable to wind.

Included in the industry insured loss estimate are losses to onshore residential, commercial, and industrial properties and automobiles for their building, contents, and time element coverage, as well as the impact of demand surge.

For those in need of a reminder, Hurricane Milton made landfall on the 9th of October in Sarasota County (Siesta Key) on the east coast of Florida as a Category 3 hurricane, bringing strong winds, heavy rainfall, tornadoes, and storm surges, resulting in loss of life, damage to property and infrastructure, and power outages.

However, in spite of the storm’s major hurricane status, the highest measured maximum sustained wind over land was 78 mph, or low-end Category 1 strength, in Venice, Florida.

The Extreme Event Solutions Group also noted that a few locations reported gusts of over 100 mph.

“It should be noted that there were likely higher sustained winds and wind gusts over land in some locations, especially near Milton’s landfall location, but their either was no instrumentation to measure these winds, or the instrumentation had failed because of power outages,” the firm added.

“The winds resulted in major structural damage near Tampa and St. Petersburg. In downtown Tampa, the roof was ripped off Tropicana Field and a crane was blown over into the Tampa Bay Times office building.”

With both hurricane’s Helene and Milton impacting Florida back-to-back over such a short time period, this could wind up having some impacts on loss development and settlement for both storms.

If you recall, Verisk’s Extreme Event Solutions group recently estimated that Helene’s insured losses could reach up to $11 billion, excluding the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).

In fact, only hurricane’s Ivan and Jeanne in 2004 hit Florida as major hurricanes over a shorter period than Helene and Milton going all the way back to 1851.

“One challenge that is likely to arise is over the attribution of loss to each event. Areas around Tampa Bay, south to Siesta Key, and along the coast due south toward Fort Myers were all impacted by both storms,” the firm added.

“The area south of Tampa saw significant storm surge from both events. In addition to claims settlement challenges, the back-to-back coastal flooding events could lead to aggregate flood limits being reached in some cases.”

One unique aspect that the firm highlights when it comes to Milton, is the debris pile up and non-removal of the same following Helene which impacted some of the same counties along the Gulf Coast, just a few weeks ago.

It’s important to address that there are numerous images and reports of massive debris left outside properties, on the streets which could have potentially further exacerbated damage from Milton by acting as projectile sources, despite efforts to clean up before Milton’s arrival.

Rob Newbold, president of Verisk Extreme Event Solutions, commented: “The U.S. is once again faced with recovering from a devastating hurricane that tragically took the lives of many individuals. “We are committed to learning from these events to support the safety, security and resilience of the people and communities affected, and of others across the world.”

Furthermore, the Extreme Event Solutions Group also explains that while Milton is expected to have a significantly higher insured loss tally than Helene, the difference between the events insured losses is driven in large part by the lower take up rates on flooding in areas impacted by Helene, particularly inland areas impacted by precipitation-induced flooding.

Recently, Karen Clark & Company (KCC) estimated that the privately insured loss from Milton is likely to be close to $36 billion in the US from wind, storm surge, and inland flooding.

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